Breckenridge:

• USA Pro Cycling Challenge route announced for 2012 race - Breckenridge to host August 24 Stage 5 start - Denver Post, 4/4/12 (See our fantastic 1-minute video from last year’s event!)
• New shuttle service connects Fairplay, Breckenridge - Start-up company runs four shuttles, stops in Blue River and Alma - Summit Daily, 12/28/11

Summit County:

• Summer business looking good for Summit County - Reservations for mountain stays looking positive in upcoming months - Summit Daily, 5/8/12
• Summit County’s building scene could be on the mend - Some local builders report interest is up, home sizes down - Summit Daily, 5/1/12
• Summit's building scene holding steady - Building permits the same or slightly higher in 2011 - Summit Daily, 2/16/12

Colorado:

• Resort real estate market seeing some gains in Eagle County - Vail Daily, 5/7/12
• Denver housing market second in nation for quick sales - Metro Denver's real estate market, not long ago a buyer's domain, suddenly has shifted to a seller's paradise, at least in some neighborhoods and price ranges - Denver Post, 4/19/12

National:

• Fewer US homes foreclosed upon in April - National foreclosure trends took a positive turn in April, as the number of homes seized by banks declined and fewer properties entered into the foreclosure process - Associated Press, 5/17/12
• Vacation Homes Beckon - If you're thinking of buying a second home in the next five years, this might be your best opportunity - Wall Street Journal, 5/4/12
• “When you factor in current incomes and historically low financing costs, homes are now more affordable than they have been in 40 years” - Clifton Larson Allen Wealth Advisors, 4/26/12
• US home builders requested the most permits in March for single-family homes and apartments in 3.5 years, suggesting that many expect the housing market to improve over the next year - Associated Press, 4/17/12

• “Residential” means homes, condos, townhomes, duplexes, or vacant land
• The data for 2006-2011 is for the full year. The data for 2012 is from 1/1 to 4/30/12.
• County-wide, the average sold price in 2011 was $495,931. The average sold price so far in 2012 is $516,595. That’s an increase of 4.2%. So prices are going up, right? Not necessarily. See the bullets below the chart!

• Suppose there were just two choices: Cozy Condos or Fancy Homes. In 2011, there are 10 sales of Cozy Condos, each at $300,000. There are 2 sales of Fancy Homes, each at $1,000,000. The average selling price is [ (10 x $300K) + (2 x $1M) ] / 12 = $416,667.
• In 2012, the market improves and there are more sales of everything. We go from 10 to 12 sales of Cozy Condos, again at $300,000 apiece. And one more Fancy Home sale than last year for a total of 3 sales, again each at $1,000,000. The average selling price is [ (12 x $300K) + (3 x $1M) ] / 15 = $440,000.
• That’s an increase in the average selling price of $440K / $416.7K = 5.6%. Yet, Cozy Condos sold for $300K and did not go up in price. Fancy Homes sold for $1M and did not go up in price. Overall aggregate market statistics can be misleading.
• To really know what’s going on with prices, you have to look at selling prices per square foot in a specific complex or subdivision such as One Breckenridge Place. That’s the approach we take.

• For more details on this chart, see our article on Which Homes Are Selling Best
• The blue line at the bottom of the chart shows the monthly supply of homes under $500K.
• Currently, there are 30 homes for sale, and 66 have sold in the past 12 months. 30 / 66 = 0.45 years = 5.5 months supply. In other words, at the current rate of sale, the current homes on the market “should” all be sold in 5.5 months. That’s a low supply, shifting the advantage from the buyer, towards a more balanced market!
• Additionally, there are 10 such homes in that price range that are under contract and should be closing within a month
• For the 12 months ending 3/29/12, 66 homes under $500K were sold -- that’s the largest number in several years, and is twice the number of sales during the corresponding period one year ago
• On a personal note, we know of two recent bank-owned homes under $500K, that had big price reductions and subsequently received 4 or 5 offers within 48 hours!
• Other encouraging news: countywide the number of foreclosures is down 62%. There were 45 foreclosures in the first quarter of 2011, but only 17 in the first quarter of 2012.
• More good news: in Summit County the number of building permits is up 35%. For Breckenridge the number of permits is up 25%. We are even seeing the return of the “spec home” -- a builder buys land and builds a home on the speculation that he will find a buyer and make a good profit.
• For all of Summit County, the number of residential sales is up 3%. For some reason, Breckenridge is off to a slow start -- sales in Q1 2012 are down 21% vs Q1 2011. But, prices are still roughly flat.

• “Residential listings” means the total number of homes, condos, townhomes, duplexes, and vacant land for sale on any given date
• The chart shows a clear seasonal pattern.
• The number of listings generally is the lowest in January, and slowly rises all spring and summer to a peak in July.
• On average, the number of listings rises about 35% from January to July
• Looking at the chart as a whole, the number of listings has declined somewhat in the past three years, especially in 2011. The most likely reason is that people have tried to sell their properties, but didn’t get the price they wanted, and are leaving their property off the market until prices improve. As our market continues to stabilize and improve, we expect the total number of listings to increase, with higher highs in July, and higher lows in January.